Serveur d'exploration Covid

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Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

Identifieur interne : 000249 ( an2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000248; suivant : 000250

Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

Auteurs : Huwen Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Zezhou Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yinqiao Dong [République populaire de Chine] ; Ruijie Chang [République populaire de Chine] ; Chen Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaoyue Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Shuxian Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Lhakpa Tsamlag [République populaire de Chine] ; Meili Shang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jinyan Huang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ying Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Gang Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Tian Shen [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinxin Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yong Cai [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

RBID : PMC:7039910

Abstract

An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt. In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.


Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0
PubMed: 32133152
PubMed Central: 7039910


Affiliations:


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PMC:7039910

Le document en format XML

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</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Wang, Ying" sort="Wang, Ying" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying" last="Wang">Ying Wang</name>
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<nlm:aff id="Aff1">
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<institution>School of Public Health,</institution>
<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
200025 Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Xu, Gang" sort="Xu, Gang" uniqKey="Xu G" first="Gang" last="Xu">Gang Xu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="Aff1">
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<institution>School of Public Health,</institution>
<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
200025 Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Shen, Tian" sort="Shen, Tian" uniqKey="Shen T" first="Tian" last="Shen">Tian Shen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="Aff1">
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<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.16821.3c</institution-id>
<institution>School of Public Health,</institution>
<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
200025 Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Zhang, Xinxin" sort="Zhang, Xinxin" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xinxin" last="Zhang">Xinxin Zhang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
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<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.16821.3c</institution-id>
<institution>Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North,</institution>
<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
200025 Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Cai, Yong" sort="Cai, Yong" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yong" last="Cai">Yong Cai</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="Aff1">
<institution-wrap>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.16821.3c</institution-id>
<institution>School of Public Health,</institution>
<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
200025 Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Cell Discovery</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2056-5968</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p id="Par1">An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
. In the first assumption,
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
 = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption,
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
 = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
 = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>
<italic>t</italic>
</sub>
to an ideal level and control the infection.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>République populaire de Chine</li>
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<tree>
<country name="République populaire de Chine">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Wang, Huwen" sort="Wang, Huwen" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Huwen" last="Wang">Huwen Wang</name>
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</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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